KAMALA HARRIS SURGES IN RASMUSSEN POLL, MAGA FANS MELTDOWN…
09/18/2024
Author: Sahil Habibi
Kamala Harris found herself with a shocking 6 point lead in Rasmussen’s daily tracker poll dated September 15th. But Kamala Harris & her supporters may have not been the only ones surprised. MAGA fans were quite shocked themselves: how could the clearly conservative bias pollster be the one showing that Kamala Harris had a 6 point lead, let alone a 12 point swing in her favor in THREE DAYS?
A fellow MAGA fan, Moderate to Severe reacted: “This seesaw has become meaningless”
There are many more angry conservative fans, with some even questioning either Rasmussen’s financial motives, or its polling credibility:
Laughing at MAGA fans losing their minds aside, is there any credibility to their concerns of polling credibility? OF COURSE! Is a polling swing of 12 points in the span of three days genuinely possible? No way! It’s far too extreme of an outcome, and it can’t be taken seriously. It’s too volatile, even with the smaller sample size of about 400 voters, if the sample size is reasonably representative, there shouldn’t be such an insane variance like we see.
In fact, the last Rasmussen poll to drop was Trump +2, while the prior one was Trump +1. The trend went all the way from Trump +7 down to Trump +1, and in holding with the trend it either would’ve stayed the same or went to a tie. Why did it not happen? Is it because the data is not really reliable or trustworthy? YES!
So if conservatives would like to come to the table to agree that Rasmussen is not trustworthy polling, I’d be GLAD to do so!
Meanwhile, in reality, Kamala Harris is reaching new highs in individual polls in the post-debate polling world. She reached a +6 margin in the new Morning Consult poll, a new high, and an increase of 3 points from the prior margin, and she also is the first democrat to be leading a HarrisX Poll that was sponsored by Forbes.
She’s now back up to a 3.1 point lead in the aggregate, with a bizarre outlier of an AtlasIntel set of polls that somehow shows Trump up three and four respectively. Almost laughably ridiculous considering the climate of the polls otherwise. Where would it be without these outliers? 3.2? 3.4? Who knows. Nonetheless, it appears the debate has blunted the contraction Harris had been facing in the polls after peaking at around 3.7 points in late August.
How far up will she go? Only time will tell, especially as old polls start to fall out of the aggregate numbers.
