KAMALA HARRIS SURGES IN HEAVY REPUBLICAN STATES

09/15/24

Ever since Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Kamala Harris on July 21st, 2024, Kamala Harris has surged forward compared to not only Biden’s numbers in 2024, but her own as well.

However, what’s unbelievably shocking is that Kamala Harris appears to be surging in many REPUBLICAN states, not just in national polling and in swing states. For example, a brand new post-debate poll has released in the state of Alaska, a state that went for Trump by 10 points in 2020 and by 15 points in 2016. The new poll from the Alaska Survey Research Poll found that Kamala Harris trails Trump by only 5 points, half the margin of the 2020 victory for Donald Trump. This is also an increase of 5 points from the 10 point deficit in the prior Cygnal Poll showing in the aggregate on FiveThirtyEight.

Biden trailed by 23 points and 19 points in the two Bullfinch Polls, and even running back to October of 2023, in the same pollster’s poll, we saw that there was a 7 and 8 point leads for Trump. So Harris is running ahead of both the 2020 margin, Biden’s 2024 poll numbers, and even his 2023 poll numbers.

But this isn’t the only state. There’s a poll from Arkansas that was released not too long ago in September which showed that Kamala Harris was only down 15 points. That may sound like a lot, but it was won by over 27 points in 2020, which means there’s a 12 point shift inward. This was a poll by Hendrix College, who in 2020’s polling aggregate was actually not only the most accurate in all of the available polls in FiveThirtyEight’s poll listing, but it was even better than the aggregate, which said it was about 22 points in favor of Trump. They had Trump up 25, which was the closest to the actual margin of around 27 points in favor of Trump.

Biden in the 2023 October poll was down 23 points.

In a third state, Oklahoma, we see that Harris is now down 15 points in the new Sooner Poll, where Biden was losing by around 30 points in the prior Cygnal polls in April, and by similar numbers in October of 2023.

So what is happening? Why is there a clear surge happening in these hard Republican states?

Some potential theorems involve a “secret” Harris vote. One potential is that there are women who have been feeling coerced or controlled into voting Republican by their wives, as we see that on Google Trends, searches for things like “husband vote”, “partner vote”, and “spouse vote” all PEAKED in interest on the day after the debate. Not only that, but actually abortion was actually the most searched issue nationwide, outside of Ohio (lol). There may be a vote that is going unnoticed because of this, and there are websites trying to assist women to be able to vote independent of their husbands, where it is being reported that many women are asking the question: “Can my husband see who I voted for?”

Another one would be that there is a potential “closeted MAGA” vote. There are people who are tired of Trump, January 6th, and now even him spreading lies that Haitian immigrants are eating cats and dogs, completely racist lies that J.D. Vance has admitted is false. Maybe there are people who are unable to “come out of the closet”, similar to coming out as being gay in their environments, because of the social pressure and shame involved.

There appears to be some movement amongst moderate Republican voters as well, with many so-called “moderate Republicans” coming out saying they’re voting for Harris or endorsing her. People such as former Attorney General Gonzalez, former Senator Pat Toomey, former Rep. Liz Cheney, Former Vice President Dick Cheney, and more. If there is even a one or two point shift, this could be huge for Kamala Harris, as this election is going to come down to the margins.

One thing is for certain, there appears to be quite a large appeal for many voters with Kamala Harris, it seems she may only struggle with white males, as she seems to do well with almost all minority groups and women voters. Only time will tell where she will end up.